Why Minsk 2 is partial victory of Putin, Russia & Donbas but not the West

Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement in raging proxy Cold war between Russia and the West is signed.

RT gives full breakdown of points here.

Important notice: points of agreement not supposed to be implemented all at once and immediately but one by one, 1st ceasefire on Feb 15, 2d pullout of heavy weaponry from frontline, and so on. Sides won’t go to fulfill next point before they agree previous point of pact was implemented in full and verified by OSCE.

If all points of Minsk 2 agreement are fullfilled in good faith then Ukraine will be another state and controversial question of Kiev control border will be setlled mutually without any hussle.

However it’s a long way from where we are now, and plenty of critics, some irrationally (usually hawks on all sides), other rationally (because Kiev reneged on all past words and next to impossible to change its ultranationalist nature) think Minsk 2 agreement bound to failure.

Think Minsk 2 is failure like Minsk 1 is one thing, another is who won this round in Cold War 2 – West or Russia, Ukraine or Donbas.

Arguments used almost repeat what was said in last September about Minsk 1. Read prominent “hawk” on pro-Donbas side Paul Craig Roberts:

The Russian government might want to carefully consider whether Moscow is helping Washington to achieve another victory in Ukraine.

Why I disagree with idea that Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 are Russian (and Donbas) failures? Minsk 1 was concluded after heavy defeat of Ukraine army in Ilovaysk and several other cauldrons which were located on the border with Russia. US policy after successfull Feb 2014 coup and seizure of Crimea by Russia was to provoke Russian-Ukrainian war in order to declare Moscow “aggressor” like Soviet Union in 1979 and acquire new anti-Russian allies in the third world. It didn’t happen, Putin didn’t bite the bullet and let trapped Ukrainian soldiers to return home. Instead he got Minsk 1 – tactical pause in conflict which was used by both sides to regroup, rearm and and train. Unlike summer situation Donbas effectively became not-recognized independent state with its own armed forces. When ceasefire collapsed in middle of January Novorossiya armed forces (NAF) defeated Kiev regime in Donetsk airport and managed to trap another huge army group of 6-8K Ukrainian soldiers in Debaltsevo. This time cauldron is for real, no Russian border escape route. Ukraine war start resembling Syria more and more and here the West start fracturing, German and French leaders broke ranks with US and launched diplomatic offensive which was welcomed by Kremlin.

Mr Roberts whom I respect not far off the mark when he points US efforts to escalate Ukraine conflict further not cut short by Minsk 2. But Minsk 2 achieved what Minsk 1 could not – stall new anti-Russian sanctions and Western alliance start disintegrating again between Old Europe led by France and Germany and United States with satellites in New Europe.

I hope Minsk 2 ceasefire is slowly but surely will be implemented and I am sure Donbas and Russia will use another break from war wisely, preparing to respond to US-plotted reinvasion of Donbas in April-May as proposed by US neocons in recently published Brookings report.

Minsk 2 is just a step in long chess party between Putin & Obama and I believe Russia & Donbas won this round. But West still leads score in new Cold War over Ukraine and victory is far away.

On picture: Merkel and Hollande who from Minsk 2 have their own game different from Washington neocons.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s