Score in Cold War 2.0 on eve of Minsk 2.0

The best war is the one which didn’t start said Sun-Tzu. A war is last argument of rulers when compromise in bitter dispute not possible and destruction of lives and properties can bring about another situation when compromise becomes possible or one of the sides of war had disappeared in the process (was defeated, annihilated, genocided etc).

My focus is on big picture, Cold War 2.0 between the West led by US against Russia in Ukraine. Big stages in this undeclared war are well known:

1 Euromaidan stage where the West supported and instigated overthrow of president Yanukovich. It ended successfully for the West in coup on Feb 22 2014. 1:0 West leads score.

2 Kiev junta immediately tried to assert authority but failed in mainly populated by ethnic Russians Crimea where local government asked local militia led by Aksyonov to defend from pro-Kiev elements, on March 1 peninsula was effectively annexed by Russian and pro-Russian forces. On March 15 overwhelming majority of Crimeans voted in favor of independence from Ukraine & to join Russian Federation as its subject. Wild celebrations erupt across country. Score became 1:1.

3 In April unrest is growing in other pro-Russian regions of Donbas where many destabilizing elements from Russia arrive. They find receptive population angry with illegal Kiev government stuffed by Western stooges. Talks in Geneva ended inconclusively. Russian political class discusses possibility of direct intervention in Ukraine to quickly overthrow Kiev junta & install sort of interim regime which can restore balance in Ukraine between pro-Russian & pro-Western regions. The West of course will declare the step illegal like Soviet Union help to its puppet government in Afghanistan in 1979 but many lives could be saved.

4 United States emissaries urge Kiev junta for tough action against so far peaceful pro-Russian separatists who organized campaign for federalization and decentralization of Ukraine. On May 2 Kiev junta organized one of the most disgusting and macabre mass murders in modern history – pro-Kiev Nazi thugs killed, slashed, chopped, beat to death and burned upto 100 pro-federalization supporters in Odessa. US and Western governments and press openly lying about Odessa Massacre blaming victims they burn themselves. Putin keeps silence for 3 long days apparently was so shocked by US-sponsored action.  Score 2:1 West leads.

5 Such heinous crime radicalized situation in Donbas where overwhelming majority vote in favor of independence in local referendums. Kiev junta response was vicious, launching military operation against rebels. First victims of civil war appear. In the end of May Kiev junta organized sham election, by simple mathematical trick (by removing 6 mln Donbas voters from list) elect oligarch Poroshenko as new president in 1st round (in fact he gathered less than 50% of votes). Russia is forced to recognize Poroshenko as well as refrain from authorizing Donbas referendums. Score 3:1 West leads.

6 Poroshenko’s reign of terror in Donbas started with June 2 air raid on Lugansk downtown killing many civilians. Raid blamed by Kiev propaganda on exploded air-conditioner in building later to rebels using RPGs despite the war crime was accidentally recorded on mobile cameras. Hastily organized local Donbas militia not match for well equipped invading Kiev forces and suffer heavy losses. Western media and governments continue to lie relentlessly, West leads score 4:1.

7 Russia by intrigues tries to remove Russian elements from separatist leadership and in the end Moscow succeeds, Strelkov and Borodai resigned and went back to Russia. In Lugansk initial leader Bolotov replaced by his aide Plotnitsky. New leaders of Donetsk belong to Oplot, pro-Russian group from Kharkov, its leader Zakharchenko becomes PM. In exchange for replacing leaders on locals Moscow, it is alleged by Kiev and the West, had provided military help to Donbas rebels in form of better trained volunteers and some armory and guns. Russian government still denies its involvement while Donbas rebels say weapons they got from Ukraine army bases. Presence of volunteers from Russia is not denied by Moscow and Donetsk. Mismanaged Ukrainian forces trying to secure border with Russia had suffered heavy defeats in several cauldrons (pockets). Kiev had to go for Minsk ceasefire 1.0 on Sept 15, obviously for regrouping and rearming. West still leads the score but lost this round 4:2.

8 In autumn while many volunteers from Russia went back local Donbas rebels after Minsk agreement gaining relative break in war start intensive training. Local elections held in November, participation still strong. Kiev also held election of parliament Rada; rearming (with Western help) and regrouping as well as both sides continue artillery duels along the frontline. Kiev’s losses in armymen not known due to secrecy and lies but civilian victims of Kiev shelling cities test patience of rebels. As Kiev reneges on its Minsk promises all understand ceasefire is temporary and fighting can resume at any moment. The West (still united but without new allies) imposed new round of anti-Russian sanctions but result not yet seen. However anemic economic recovery of Eurozone & oil fracking boom led to oversupply of 1mln barrel of oil a day on world markets and oil prices had crashed which led to devaluation of ruble by 100% from 33 to 66 per $1. Obama takes credit for that as usual. The score increases to 5:2.

9 In the middle of January Putin sent letter to Poroshenko, got no reply but on January 18 Kiev forces launched aborted storm of old terminal of Donetsk airport breaking ceasefire. In resumed fighting Donbas rebels using lent from Lugansk rebels heavy artillery managed to destroy airport tower and stormed new terminal of airport which was controlled by Kiev cyborgs. Big victory apparent. In early February rebels managed to trap big Ukraine army group in Debaltsevo, another huge military victory. It became clear Sept-Jan ceasefire was used by Donbas rebels better than by Kiev. Alarmed by Kiev defeats the West fractures, Germany and France broke ranks with US and embark on peace mission to Kiev and Moscow essentially agreeing on Putin’s terms. This stage should end today February 11 by signing Minsk 2.0 agreement. Score in US-Russia war became 5:3.

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